The future of winter sports - A Delphi study

Skiing is more popular than ever before and has steadily expanded its base over the past five years (Schmidt et al., 2019). The latest developments sound very promising, but it is undeniable that the industry is also facing challenges. Therefore, we conducted a scientifically-based Delphi study on the future of skiing with the support of renowned winter sports experts. The study takes us on a journey through time and outlines skiing in the year 2025. According to our experts, five years from now, despite huge environmental challenges, the skiing industry has managed to find technological solutions to sustain best skiing conditions for long periods of the year - both for professional and recreational skiers. Technology has not only helped to make resorts more climate-friendly, but digital innovations have also enabled an entirely new skiing experience. Cashless payments and seamless consumer interactions have become the new normal, making recreational skiing more fun and more secure. Security has similarly increased for professional skiers in 2025. With the enhancement of available technologies and an extended usage of advanced data analytics methods, athletes face less risk of severe injuries and, thus, can deliver record-breaking performances on the slopes. Moreover, digital technologies including virtual reality simulations have helped athletes to continuously improve their skills. At the same time, augmented reality applications guide both professional and recreational skiers through the fastest and/or safest route, based on weather and slope conditions. While this all has happened in five years from now, some areas still require more focus. According to our experts, wage gaps between male and female athletes still exist, mainly because of more lucrative endorsement deals for men. In 2025, gender parity in ski sports organizations has not yet been reached. The same holds true for the digitization in these organizations, which have made a lot of progress but still lack behind, despite a strong desire to catch up to digital frontrunners in other sports. The desire for the use of digital ski sports simulations is limited and might need more time to grow. Five years from now, there are far more skiers on the real slopes than in the digital world and video gaming has not yet proven to be a critical factor in getting young people excited about skiing. Based on our experts` opinions, this is how skiing might look like in the year 2025. However, critics may object: Why should we care about future projections? Why should we be concerned today with the development of the skiing industry in five years` time? By then, the world will no longer be comparable to that of today, anyway. Does it, therefore, make any sense to think about long-term strategies? Our answer is yes! In the new realities of the digitized society and economy, future readiness is a core capability. It is important to think through future scenarios and to carefully deal with the consequences they might have. Projections help players in the skiing industry to identify trends early, reduce uncertainty, and increase their competitiveness. Decision makers are required to anticipate future changes and must learn to think counterfactually in order to shape the future of their beloved sports. Our Delphi study is designed to help athletes, managers and decision makers to adapt their business model in a timely manner in order to build their own organization in a sustainable and futureoriented way. Our goal is not to make an exact prediction, but to initiate a productive debate about the future of skiing. The desire to predict the future is part of human nature. In ancient Greece, the Oracle of Delphi foretold the future and became one of the most famous cult sites in history (Häder, 2009). However, for our scientific "view into the crystal ball," we did not consult the Oracle of Delphi, but rather collected the opinions of leading minds in the skiing industry. These included FIS officials, former elite athletes, managing directors of ski resorts, technology experts, eSports developers, and media representatives. With the help of a "real-time" version of the Delphi method (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963), originally developed by the US military in the 1960s for forecasting purposes, a total of 46 proven experts evaluated and commented on 13 projections on the future of ski sports. Each projection was assessed in terms of probability, impact, and desirability of its occurrence. For the year 2025, five different scenarios were analyzed and are presented on the following pages in more detail.
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Aiheet: talviurheilu kehitys organisointi kilpailu ennuste hiihto lumilautailu ympäristö teknologia taloudellisuus yhteiskunta video ekologia kansainvälinen kansallinen sports management
Aihealueet: järjestöt ja tapahtumat urheilun johto ja organisaatio urheiluhistoria ja urheilupolitiikka
Toimittajat: Otto Beisheim School of Management
Julkaistu: Düsseldorf Otto Beisheim School of Management 2019
Sarja: CSM Research reports
Sivuja: 20
Julkaisutyypit: elektroninen julkaisu
Kieli: englanti (kieli)
Taso: keskitaso